Who’s Next After EasyJet? We Size Up 10 Possible Takeover Targets

Key Points

• Castlelake's ~£5.2bn ($7bn) EasyJet deal uses a 49%/majority-EU-national structure to sidestep Europe's strict foreign-ownership rules, echoing precedents like Delta/Virgin Atlantic and Turkish Airlines/Air Europa.
• Most remaining independents are effectively off the table: Wizz Air already has a constrained PE backer, Finnair and airBaltic are state-controlled, Jet2 is founder-defended and cash-rich, and Aegean and LOT are buyers rather than targets.
• Condor is the clearest willing seller (Attestor has hired Barclays), while TAP is the most advanced deal, with Lisbon due to pick Air France-KLM or Lufthansa—underscoring that many European airline deals still run through governments.

Summary

Following Castlelake's £5.2 billion ($7 billion) agreement in principle to buy EasyJet—structured with the U.S. firm holding 49% and two EU nationals holding the majority to satisfy Europe's strict airline ownership rules—the article surveys which of Europe's remaining independent carriers could be next to be acquired by private equity or a larger group. It concludes that most independents are either already spoken for, protected by state ownership, defensively structured, or actively buying rather than being bought. Wizz Air already has private equity backer Indigo constrained by EU rules; Condor is the only carrier whose owner (Attestor) has openly put up a "for sale" sign; Finnair and airBaltic are locked behind majority state ownership; Jet2 is founder-anchored and cash-rich; Aegean and LOT are acquirers themselves; and TAP is the cleanest deal underway, with Lisbon set to choose between Air France-KLM and Lufthansa. The recurring theme is that scale increasingly matters in European aviation, but EU ownership rules and state shareholders make consolidation slow, politically charged, and often routed through finance ministries.