Marriott CEO on U.S. Recession Fears and India's Untapped Potential

India is a cornerstone of Marriott International's future growth, with the company projecting it will become its third-largest market. This vision, however, is being navigated against a backdrop of growing global economic uncertainty.

“The public markets thrive in times of stability and reliability, and I think the early portion of the Trump administration has provided neither of those,” said Anthony Capuano, Marriott International CEO, at the Skift India Forum on Tuesday.  

The company already has a large footprint in India, boasting more than 30,000 rooms plus a substantial pipeline. This strategy reflects a deep-seated belief in India's burgeoning travel market. Yet, this growth must be considered alongside the global economic landscape, where volatility appears to be increasing.

“There's a lot of back and forth. There's a lot of questions, certainly in the [United] States and around the world, as to whether the tariff approach is a real approach or it's a negotiating ploy. And time will tell, which turns out to be the case, probably a little bit of both,” said Capuano.

Marriott CEO on U.S. Recession Risks

 "Will we see a recession? I’d almost hold my answer until we get through the end of first quarter earnings season," Capuano said.

"If we get through that season and we see strong corporate profits, we continue to see strong employment numbers, then I will feel much more bullish about the economy. If, on the other hand, you see a real pullback on corporate profits, we may find ourselves in a different set of circumstances," said the Marriott CEO.

Despite these economic concerns, Marriott is not planning to revise its financial forecasts.

"We've got a couple weeks left in the quarter, but the momentum we're seeing on a global basis, both in terms of occupancy and average rate growth, is really encouraging," said Capuano.

India: Empowerment and Streamlined Growth

Within India, Marriott's strategy hinges on empowering local leadership through recognizing the expertise of Indian executives.

"We have a terrific footprint of Indian national executives that have worked their whole career in India. To develop that real expertise, we should empower them to make those decisions through a local market lens in real time," said Capuano.

Recent discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have focused on expanding Marriott's presence in secondary and tertiary cities, increasing female employment, and streamlining bureaucratic processes.

A broader theme, according to Capuano, is the need to reduce "friction" across all aspects of the travel and development ecosystem.

"I think for the administration to continue to make progress to eliminate friction from the development process in those states where you don't have infrastructure designation for hospitality, that's a big priority, and I think a real enabler for the acceleration of growth," he said.

This extends beyond development, impacting the ability to attract international visitors.

"We talked a lot about what India can do to remove now friction from an international travelers perspective, to drive inbound international visitation as well... There's lots of good signs, I think, certainly the amount of investment from the public sector in new airports and from Air India, that's quite encouraging," noted Capuano.

Adapting to the Modern Traveler

Marriott is also adapting its offerings to cater to the evolving needs of travelers. Its Bonvoy loyalty program is being reimagined to appeal to a broader audience, moving beyond its traditional focus on business travelers.

"As we continue to try to enroll folks at the front desk to the extent they say no, I'm always curious to the verbatim as to why," said Capuano, highlighting the leisure shift. 

"You're going to have enough to get a free cup of coffee round the corner or to participate in one of these one point drops to go to a Taylor Swift or now a Beyoncé concert. Those are really compelling reasons to be part of the platform," Capuano said about the appeal of more diverse redemption options.