Thailand-U.S. Direct Flights Could Return by Early 2025

Thailand could resume direct flights to the U.S. early next year, as it anticipates an upgrade to a Category 1 safety rating from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit expressed confidence, saying the FAA could officially reinstate Thailand’s Category 1 (CAT 1) safety rating by February 2025, according to a Bangkok Post report.

In 2015, the FAA downgraded Thailand’s aviation safety rating to Category 2. This followed a safety audit that highlighted non-compliance with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety standards by the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT). It barred Thai carriers from launching new routes to the U.S., effectively grounding nonstop flights.

However, prior to the downgrade, Thai Airways, the only carrier that flew non-stop from Bangkok to two U.S. destinations had already ceased the ultra long-haul flights due to operational losses. The flag carrier previously operated to Los Angeles and New York JFK using Airbus A340-500s.

Thailand’s Long-Haul Connectivity

An FAA inspection of Thailand’s aviation sector carried out between November 11-15 reported significant progress, with only minor issues remaining. The FAA audit found major issues had been resolved, Chayatan Phromsorn, transport permanent secretary, said.

With the restoration of CAT 1 status, Thai carriers such as Thai Airways will once again be eligible to operate direct flights to the United States.

At present, the only nonstop flight between North America and Bangkok is a seasonal route launched by Air Canada in 2022. The service operates between Vancouver and Bangkok from December to April.

Last month British Airways also resumed operations to Bangkok, and plans to increase services in early next year. Many other European and Gulf airlines also serve the Thai capital, however no American carrier currently flies into Thailand.

Earlier this year, Thai Airways confirmed an order for 45 Boeing widebody jets, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2033. New aircraft deliveries, including 787-9 Dreamliners slated for 2027, could bolster its ability to relaunch U.S. routes

As of September 30, the Thai Airways fleet comprised 57 widebody planes. In October, the airline added two more widebody aircraft through a leasing arrangement.

Thai Airways Rebounds

Last week, Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri shared a goal to reclaim a 35% market share by 2029. Before the pandemic, the carrier held a 35% share in Bangkok but saw this plunge below 20% during 2020. It has since rebounded to 26%.

Despite these ambitions and expansion plans, the company continues to grapple with financial and operational challenges. It entered a restructuring process in 2020 to tackle its mounting debts and operational inefficiencies. After a decade of consecutive losses, it returned to profitability last year.

To sustain its recovery, last week the airline announced plans to raise up to THB 44 billion ($1.28 billion) through a share rights offering. This move is part of its strategy to conclude its court-supervised business rehabilitation and prepare for a relisting on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).

Tourism Implications

Thailand anticipates 40 million foreign tourist arrivals next year, generating around THB 3.4 trillion ($99 billion) in revenue.

More than 31 million tourists visited the country as of November 24, 2024 with tourist spending reaching THB 1.4 trillion baht ($40.5 billion).

The United States, UK and Germany rank among Thailand’s top long-haul source markets for high-spending travelers. Direct connectivity could further boost premium leisure and business travel, tapping into the lucrative sector.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has set a target to attract 1.13 million US travellers this year. Key strategies being implemented include projects in partnership with luxury travel partners and other marketing and publicity activities, including the HBO partnership for the filming and promotion of The White Lotus season 3 in Thailand.

Thailand now allows citizens from 93 countries and territories to stay for up to 60 days without a visa, these include China, India, as well as U.S., UK, Albania, UAE, Cambodia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Laos, Mexico and Morocco.