Forget 2021 — Leading Science Writer Says Pandemic Is a 36-Month Event


Skift Take

Bad news for 2021 optimists. Leading science writer and pandemic expert Laurie Garrett says while we're waiting for a vaccine, wear a mask. It might even be more effective.

Back in the treacherous days of spring 2020, there was wishful talk of a return to travelling normalcy by the fourth quarter of this year. As the autumn begins, many prognosticators are holding out hope that the summer 2021 season will look like normal. At the kick-off of Skift Global Forum on Monday, Pulitzer prize-winning science writer Laurie Garrett had some sobering news for the travel industry: She foresees the pandemic as having a 36-month event horizon. This, by the way, was Garrett imagining a best case scenario. "That would mean we had a vaccine that was better than 90 percent effective, safe, could be taken in a single dose, could be administered to 7 billion people worldwide with relative ease. We don't have that," Garrett told Skift CEO Rafat Ali. "None of the leading contending vaccine candidates that are in the pipelines right now ... promise to be better than 50 percent effectiv