Skift Take

As developed markets reach their saturation point in international travel expenditure, emerging markets are heading towards the pole position.

Today we are launching the latest report, Key Emerging Outbound Travel Markets 2017, for our Skift Research subscribers.

In our latest report, we dive into outbound tourism across the world and explore the growth and changes it has seen over the past decades. We identify markets which have a strong growth potential and project growth estimates based on historic performance as well as current economic and political developments in those markets. We also project how large these markets may become if they reach a level of saturation similar to that of developed countries today.

On a global level, international travel expenditure (ITE) has roughly tripled over the past two decades, growing from just $462 billion in 1995 to $1.3 trillion in 2015. This growth is strongly correlated with economic development around the world. Globalization and free trade have also allowed for more cooperation between governments, ultimately playing a major role in the issuance of visa and immigration agreements among countries. ITE has also seen a shift in terms of where the expenditure is coming from. Just a decade ago, developed markets accounted for 70 percent of all ITE. In 2015 the number shrunk to just 51 percent.

The change has mostly come from the developed markets reaching saturation on the ITE front and the emerging markets beginning to see some growth. Small changes in some emerging markets can impact global ITE due to the sheer populations of these markets. China alone accounted for almost half of all non-OECD ITE in 2015.

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While the emerging markets are increasingly gaining share of global ITE, the growth is still at very early stages. When observing these markets by a spend per capita some regions such as India only have an ITE per capita of $13.51, indicating that international travel is still a luxury reserved to the upper classes. Even in China, which has seen such strong growth over the past decade, only an estimated 8.7 percent of citizens even possess a passport. The robust growth in these markets is likely to come along with economic development as the living standards of average citizens increase.

What you’ll learn from this report:

  • Overview of global International Tourism Expenditure
  • Tourism’s shift from developed to emerging markets
  • Key markets with potential for growth
  • Travel related developments in the markets
  • Growth potential of the markets
  • Saturation level of the markets

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The countries we explore in the report are: China, South Korean, India, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico. We selected the countries based on both how much growth we estimate there to be in the markets as well as how likely socio-economic events are to allow or interfere with the growth. As we observe in every country we analyze there is a strong correlation between economic growth and ITE.

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This is the latest in a series of monthly reports, data sheets, and analyst calls aimed at analyzing the fault lines of disruption in travel. These reports are intended for the busy travel industry decision-maker. Tap into the opinions and insights of our seasoned network of staffers and contributors. Over 200 hours of desk research, data collection, and/or analysis goes into each report.

After you subscribe, you will gain access to our entire vault of reports conducted on topics ranging from technology to marketing strategy to deep dives on key travel brands. Reports are available online in a responsive design format, or you can also buy each report a la carte at a higher price.


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Tags: research reports, skift research, tourism

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