Trump Travel Ban 2.0: How Many U.S. Visitors Are at Stake?

Trump’s Impact on Travel

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Just 49 São Toméans visited the United States in 2024, but they may be at risk of getting blocked from future trips if their government doesn’t address concerns of the Trump Administration. The tiny West African Island nation of São Tomé and Príncipe is among the 43 nations that may be included on a new expanded travel list of bans and restrictions, according to drafts seen by the New York Times and Reuters. 

The New York Times reports that there may be three levels of restrictions. There will allegedly be a red list of nations for whom travel to the U.S. is fully banned and an orange list of nations that will see travel severely restricted. 

There may also be a yellow list of nations – including São Tomé and Príncipe – being put on a 60-day notice period to address administration complaints. If these nations don’t make sufficient changes, they would be moved to the red or orange list.

How Many Visitors Could Be Affected?

Here’s the bottom line: 697,000 visitors. That’s the total number of travelers who visited the U.S. from the 43 named nations across all three tiers of travel restrictions in 2024, according to Skift Research’s analysis of visitor data collected by the National Travel and Tourism Office alongside the Department of Homeland Security. That represents roughly 1.4% of roughly 48 million travelers who visited the U.S. last year (excluding Canada/Mexico land border crossings).

Less than 2% of total inbound travel is a small share. As a result, we do not expect to see any immediate impact on tourism businesses as a result of the travel ban. 

But it is worth noting that total overseas air visitation to the U.S. was 48 million in 2024 versus 52 million in 2019. Given that U.S. inbound tourism is still 8% less than it was pre-pandemic, removing another one or two percentage points only digs that hole even deeper.

A Look at the Countries Being Banned

Of the 43 countries that may be subject to U.S. travel restrictions, Venezuela (proposed red list) had the most U.S. visitors in 2024 with 210,000 arrivals. Pakistan (proposed orange) comes in at number two with 143,000. Russia (proposed orange) rounds out the top three with 88,000 visitors. Russia had significantly higher tourism visitation before the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Venezuela are all over the headlines. But the tiny nations of Bhutan or São Tomé and Príncipe are head scratchers. And – wait a second – there were nearly 1,000 North Koreans who visited the U.S. last year?!  

Overall, we estimate that over a quarter of a million visitors will be affected by the red list ban. A further 300,000 may see severely restricted travel on the orange list. And 120,000 visitors are threatened by a yellow list warning. 

The Travel Ban in the Domestic Context

Travel in the U.S. is roughly a $1.6 trillion industry and the majority of that is driven by the domestic market. Foreign visitors contribute more than $150 billion annually to U.S. tourism. That’s a huge dollar figure but represents just 9% of the total U.S. travel industry.

The Trump 2.0 travel ban is set to affect a few percent of an inbound market that itself represents a single digit share of the U.S. tourism industry. Although the ban may cost the U.S. a few billions of dollars of inbound tourism, the law of large numbers means that this policy will likely represent less than 1% of the U.S. travel industry. 

In other words, the new Trump travel ban, in the form it is currently being reported, will likely have a negligible direct impact on the travel industry. 

But that does not mean there may not be indirect or knock-on effects. The long-term ramifications could be huge if the travel ban marks the start of a new era of tighter travel restrictions across the globe. 

Trump’s tariff and trade policy could lead to retaliation or shifts in consumer sentiment from much larger tourism source markets that would indeed move the needle. And of course, a global economic slowdown would have massive ramifications for travel. 

It is unlikely that any major travel companies will take a big hit from Trump Travel Ban 2.0. But it could represent the start of an uncertain era for travel in the months and years to come. More Skift Research analysis to follow.