Canada Is the Top Source of U.S. Travel – Now Visits Are Trending Down

Canadian visits to the U.S. may have begun to decline following Trump’s inauguration and his administration’s announcements of tariffs, early data suggests.

According to Canada's official statistics bureau on Monday, the number of Canadian residents returning from trips to the U.S. by vehicle in January declined year-over-year for the first time since the pandemic. 

The decline was modest: About 1.5 million Canadian residents crossed back into Canada from the U.S., a decline of 0.9% compared with the same month one year earlier. 

Separately, Datafy, an ad-tech provider that tracks device geo-location records from a panel of millions of Canadian devices, found that Canadian visitation to the U.S. in the month following Trump's inauguration declined 6% overall compared to the same time period the year before. 

A small number of states saw an increase in visitation, but Datafy told Skift that most states saw a “significant decline." 

Key Data, which tracks vacation and short-term rental data, found that U.S. vacation rental managers now report a drop in Canadian bookings.

Tourism-dependent states like Florida and Hawaii have had nearly 1,300 fewer bookings so far this year compared to last, according to Key Data’s new report.

However, signals were mixed. The U.S. government's official tourism tracking and forecasting service, the National Travel and Tourism Office, forecasted on Monday that overall Canadian visitation would modestly increase in 2025.

Tourism at Risk

The strength of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar had already been deterring some Canadians from visiting the U.S.. Still, comments from President Donald Trump in the past few months have raised tensions between the countries that could spill over into personal travel decisions.

“The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty-First State,” Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday. “The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear.’’

The Canadian foreign minister Mélanie Joly responded that “Canadians are united to defend our country." On Wednesday, Canada imposed tariffs on some goods in response to tariffs recently imposed by the Trump administration.

The U.S. Travel Association has warned that a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses. 

Canada has been the top source of international visitors to the U.S., with 20.4 million visits last year. The association estimated that Canadian visits to the U.S. generate $20.5 billion in spending and support 140,000 American jobs.

Figures released by Visit Florida showed that in 2024, Canadian travelers accounted for nearly one-quarter of all international visits to Florida alone.

However, some signals suggest that Canadian visits to the U.S. could continue to drop throughout the year.

A poll released by Leger Marketing showed nearly half of Canadian travelers (48%) said they are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2025 than last year. 

Traveler Segments at Risk

• Older Canadians, aged 55+, were the most likely to cut back on U.S. travel, according to the Leger Marketing survey. 52% of people aged 55+ compared to 46% aged 35-54 said they would reduce their travel.

• Higher-income households (earning over $100,000) were also significantly more likely to reduce their travel to the U.S, at 57% compared to 49% among those earning between about $60,000 and $100,000 and 37% among those earning less than $60,000 

The data was pulled from a web survey conducted from January 31 to February 3, 2025, with 1,553 Canadians aged 18 or older participating. The participants were randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. 

Key Data said that many would-be visitors to Florida vacation rentals are booking trips to overseas destinations like the U.K. and Barbados instead, which is disproportionately affecting American leisure markets.

Key Data’s report shows that Canadian travelers have responded with a tariff boycott affecting Florida, Hawaii, California, South Carolina, Colorado, and other states that traditionally court northern tourists. 

Florida vacation rental professionals have been hardest hit, with a 16% decline in reservations from Canadian travelers through February 17, while Hawaii's rental managers are seeing a 14% drop. 

Key Data CEO Jason Sprenkle said this represented the “first clear signal that political tensions are shaping travel trends in real-time."

“While it remains to be seen whether this trend will persist, it highlights how both global and local dynamics can quickly influence global travel behavior,” he said.