How Will Emerging Economies Reliant on Tourism Survive the Crisis?
Photo Credit: Fishermen in Bali Flickr / Thomas Depenbusch (Depi)
Skift Take
Many emerging economies have built their growth strategies on tourism. Not every one will survive a long-term upset — followed by a likely long-term recession — and be able to pick up where they left off on the other side.
A little more than six months into the pandemic, the rosy projections of a return to normalcy for tourism by the fourth quarter have all but vanished. Indeed, few will disagree now that Covid-19 is a long-term disruption, and the recession it will bring will likely go on for even longer.
While no two countries will emerge from a post-Covid world in the exact same shape, there are several factors that make some particularly vulnerable to a long-term upset — so much so that they may have to turn to a new economic growth strategy.
An analysis done by Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer, separates emerging markets into two main categories: defensive and vulnerable. The former includes nations that have a high domestic tourism contribution to gross domestic product pre-pandemic (more than 5 percent) cou
