Will Trump Policies Stymie an Inbound Tourism Comeback?

Trump’s Impact on Travel

Read how the first 100 days of U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions and policies are shaping the future of travel, and get insights into the industry's evolving response.

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American travelers ventured overseas in larger numbers than international travelers who came to the U.S. last year.

But what about inbound trips and will U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariff policies have an adverse impact?

In keeping with post-pandemic travel patterns, the U.S. saw 1.2 times as many outbound trips compared to inbound — 73.4 million vs. 59.7 million — in 2024, according to the 2025 Deloitte Travel Outlook. Inbound trips to the U.S. are expected to fully rebound from a pandemic dip by 2026.

That forecast of 90 million international arrivals to the U.S. by 2026 came from the Biden administration State Department last year. That figure would top 2019 levels by 9%.

The Trump Tariffs Wildcard

But Trump's proposed tariffs against some countries that are important sources of inbound tourism — such as Canada, for example — could affect those projections.

Trump's proposed tariffs would target Mexico, Canada, and China. In the last few days he added Colombia to the target list. Tariffs might make arriving and staying in the U.S. more expensive, and targeted countries could decide to limit their citizens' access to U.S. visits.

A recent survey by Corporate Traveller Canada revealed that 85% of small businesses in Canada would decrease travel to the U.S. for work if tariffs or trade restrictions are imposed.

The U.S. could also see a return to stricter visa policies, with the number of visitor visas issued during the first Trump administration prior to the pandemic registering a steady decline — from 6.3 million in 2017 to 5.4 million in 2019, according to the State Department.

Another factor is the flurry of executive orders Trump issued included a federal hiring freeze, which could lead to staff shortages in travel-related activities, resulting in longer processing times for passports and visas, for example.

Outbound Trips Are Well Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

Outbound trips from the U.S. have already exceeded pre-pandemic levels, doing so in 2023 by 11%. The following year, outbound trips surpassed 2019 figures by 21%.

Meanwhile, visitor numbers from some of the U.S.' biggest source markets still haven't surpassed pre-pandemic figures, according to Brand USA, which cited information from Tourism Economics. Tourism Economics' most recent projections — as of December 2024 — had neither Germany nor France reaching 2019 levels by the end of last year.

Japan and China Lag in U.S. Arrivals

And tourism from both Japan and China is still below pre-Covid levels. Visitor numbers from Japan aren't expected to fully rebound until 2029 while arrivals from China aren't projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2028.

Chinese tourism to the U.S. has been impacted by flight capacity not making a complete rebound. Seat capacity was 50% below pre-pandemic levels as of December 2024, according to aviation analytics firm OAG.

However, there is positive news regarding inbound visitor numbers from some other key markets. Tourism Ecoomics found visits from the United Kingdom have fully recovered, with 2024 figures surpassing those of 2019 by 34%. And tourism from India is expected to double pre-Covid levels by 2026, a year which could see India rival the UK as the U.S.' biggest source market outside North America.