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United Airlines: Domestic Demand 'Strong,' Reveals Risk of Continued War


United Airlines Airbus plane

Skift Take

Analysts are worried about a softening U.S. market but United isn't seeing it yet. Profits in the Atlantic and Pacific regions reached “record highs.”
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United Airlines on Tuesday reported “strong and steady domestic demand” and profits for key international markets at “record highs.” But it also broke out the potential business impact of a continuation of the Israel-Hamas war. 

Overall revenue in the third quarter rose 12.5%, with domestic revenue up 8.7%. “Domestic revenues in the quarter were second highest all-time and the domestic system remains solidly profitable,” the company said. 

The airline’s international passenger revenues were up 23.6% year-over-year. 

United, which has suspended flights to Tel Aviv, said a continuation of the war in Israel would reduce its forecast for revenue and earnings. 

If flights resume after October, the airline said it expects to earn about $1.80 per share in the fourth quarter. If the war continues and flights are suspended for the rest of the year, earnings could drop to $1.50 per share. 

Revenue growth would drop to about 9% if the war continues – down from 10.5% if suspensions last only through October. 

Regardless of the length of the war, United is expecting its average aircraft fuel price per gallon to be $3.28 in the fourth quarter, up from $2.95 in the third quarter. United updated its third-quarter guidance in September to reflect a more than 20% rise in fuel prices since mid-July.

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