How Bad Will It Get When Overtourism Meets Climate Change?

As cities and destinations around the world grapple with overcrowding from increased travel and tourism, most remain at a loss for how to effectively limit the negative effects of overtourism while maintaining the strong economic benefits that come with increased travel. At the same time, with the endemic threat of climate change on the horizon, cities and countries are working to become more sustainable and to better quantify the resources at their disposal. The two challenges are tied together, even if most destinations are unsure of what to do about both issues. In the years and decades to come, the struggle to contain the ill effects of travel and the new challenge of grappling with the unpredictable impact of climate change will converge. When cities become stressed, people will flock to the cities most flexible and well-prepared to thrive under a new status quo. Right now, the world is undergoing another type of shrinking thanks to the democratization of tourism and travel. Smart destinations will use tourism as a test case for quantifying and strategizing around the impacts of a future defined by limited resources and the abundance of people moving through cities. The quest to develop frameworks and strategies to deal with increased tourism and an uncertain future are just under development now. Travel and tourism will serve as the test bed for change that will have long-lasting ramifications for the world. “We don't see a lot of destinations that actually take the time to plan,” said Leigh Barnes, chief purpose officer of Intrepid Group, a global tour operator. “Destinations were unaware of it. They just wanted the tourism dollar. Destinations where there's a lot of preservation that needs to happen are proactive in that sense of limiting impact on their culture, but the impact on culture is pretty great [regardless]. You're going to have a hard time finding a Venetian in Venice, so how authentic can Venice be today?” The problem: There is a distinct lack of solutions based on data coupled with political challenges faced by destinations in even conceptualizing a long-term plan to control tourism growth with a focus on quality of life for residents. It is one thing to discuss the pollution of airplanes and cruise ships, for instance, but another to measure the stress put on cities and attractions by an increased number of visitors and the international cadre of workers who serve them. As the effects of global climate ch