What If OTAs Are the Wrong Signal on Travel Demand?
Photo Credit: An image of train travel in the future. Skift
Skift Take
The demand story has become messier, and OTAs might just be good at capturing the demand that exists.
Connecting the Dots
Rafat Ali on what’s really shaping travel — and why it matters.In a recent Connecting the Dots column, I wrote about travel’s shrinking share of the consumer wallet. This week, I build on that with a key question:
Have OTAs stopped being a reliable proxy for travel demand?
For years, when we wanted to know how travel was doing, we would look to Booking Holdings and Expedia. If gross bookings were up, demand was strong. Down meant weak demand.
It was simple. Now it’s worth challenging.
I’ve been reviewing Citizens Bank’s monthly credit card tracker, and the most revealing chart compares travel spend on its cards with the gross booking volumes of Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Airbnb.
If OTA performance truly tracked underlying travel demand, you’d expect a clear relationship: higher travel spend would correspon
