In Search of Corporate Travel’s Elusive Recovery

The one narrative for the post-pandemic travel rebound that largely remains in dispute now some two and a half years later, fueling prognostications from all sides, is the recovery of business travel.

Just as a flurry of new late summer forecasts for a full business recovery hit — again with no real consensus — a story was gaining a lot of attention that Google, once the giant of sending people out on the road in a Google-outsized kind of a way, was cutting back its travel budgets for what it called only "business critical" trips.

It was just another piece of evidence for business travel doubters that the industry will never be restored to its glory days. That's because after a challenging couple of years (and counting in some countries) the business travel industry has been looking back, misty-eyed, to the better times of 2019, asking: When will it be like that again?

More specifically it’s been looking back at the $1.4 trillion that was spent on business travel, based on the Global Business Travel Association’s calculations.

We all know business travel is a high-margin game. Hotels, airlines and travel agencies have suffered following the prolonged absence of higher-paying corporate guests. The trickle-down effect of those company dollars and generous expense allowances to local restaurants, conference venues, taxi firms and others in the wider ecosystem also dried up.

The $1.4 trillion figure has appeared extensively in the media, financial reports and investor pitch decks for several years.

But the magic number’s been more prominent recently as observers look to the end of summer as a kind of coronavirus cut-off point, with new forecasts attempting to pinpoint exactly when this “recovery” will take place.

Earlier this year, many people were looking to the fall as a true test for corporate travel's resiliency as some doomsayers have said it will never return to its former vibrancy.

“Autumn is conference season — a time that has grown in importance following the pandemic, as an increasingly distributed workforce looks to make the most out of travel by meeting with colleagues, industry peers, and clients to advance business goals,” said TripActions in its Fall Business Travel Preview.

The Global Business Travel Association predicts the $1.4 trillion in spend will now return in 2026; the