The airline pilot shortage in the U.S. will effect smaller markets most of all

Airlines anticipate a pilot shortage in coming years that could cut into service of small-market airports like Waterloo.

But it could boost business at flight schools, according to at least one aviation expert.

Pilots in general aren't young workers, according to Denny Kelly, a former pilot and now an aviation consultant with Kelly-James and Associates in Dallas. He says the average age of a commercial airline pilot is about 48.

"You've got to remember 5 to 10 percent of these pilots will retire every year," he said.

He pointed out American Airlines, whose regional carrier, American Eagle, serves Waterloo with two flights per day in and out of Waterloo Regional Airport, has been in bankruptcy reorganization and has lost pilots in recent years. If trends continue, he could envision American cutting back service to Waterloo if it needs to shift regional pilots to longer routes.

"If Eagle or American starts having a pilot shortage they're going to have to cancel flights, and the first ones they're going to cancel are markets like Waterloo," Kelly said. "If there's only two flights, that's a pretty small market, and that would be a place they'd look to cut. It's going to affect a lot of people a lot of ways."

But Brad Hagen, director of Waterloo Regional Airport, said there are a couple of reasons to doubt Kelly's dire outlook.

"First, we haven't heard anything from American regarding pilot shortages and any possible impact in the future," Hagen said.

Secondly, Hagen said, Waterloo is now part of the federal Essential Air Service program, which likely would insulate it from cutbacks.

"Since we're an EA