Skift Take
The online travel industry is marginally better positioned to deal with this current outbreak than many of their suppliers in the hotel and airline industry. Still, the damage will get worse — and be severe and long-lasting.
In just a few weeks coronavirus has spread across the globe and upended the travel industry. Online travel has lived through two past recessions —the tech bubble crash and the global financial crisis — but it has never seen anything like this outbreak before. Glenn Fogel, CEO of Booking Holdings, warned that this current crisis is worse than all previous “major” disruptions combined.
This report considers how online travel is being impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak at both the industry and individual company level. We believe that the largest seven public online travel agencies will lose at least $11.5 billion in revenue this year due to the virus. The impact could even go higher, potentially as much as $20 billion in missed revenue.
We also look across the globe different business models to understand how companies differ from each other. Chinese online travel agencies are seeing a small bounceback in March while U.S. and European OTAs continue to see their business decline. We also find some signs that businesses which cater to the short-term rentals and airline segments are outperforming the hotel business.
Finally this report analyzes public statements made by the largest three online travel agencies in the world, Booking Holdings, Expedia Group, and Trip.com. We break down and quantify what those management teams have said specifically about Covid-19.
What You’ll Learn from This Report:
- The decline in transaction volumes at Booking Holdings, Expedia Group, Trip.com Group and Airbnb.
- Estimated range of revenue impacts from coronavirus on the seven largest publicly traded online travel agencies.
- How the coronavirus outbreak could swing the balance of power between travel suppliers and online distributors.
- How full service online travel agencies stack up against those specialized in short term rentals and metasearch sites.
- Deep dive analysis of COVID-19 impact on Booking Holdings, Expedia Group, and Trip.com Group.
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This is the latest in a series of monthly reports aimed at analyzing the fault lines of disruption in travel. These reports are intended for the busy travel industry decision-maker. Tap into the opinions and insights of our seasoned network of staffers and contributors. Over 200 hours of desk research, data collection, and/or analysis goes into each report.
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Tags: booking.com, coronavirus, covid-19, ctrip, expedia, online travel agencies, skift research, trip.com