Trying to predict what's going to happen in the aviation industry is a risky game. Fuel might be coming down in price now but the world feels like a very unstable place at the moment.
Airline earnings are set to return to growth in 2019 after stuttering this year, boosted by lower jet-fuel costs and expanding economies, the International Air Transport Association said.
Industry-wide net income should jump 10 percent to $35.5 billion, with North America accounting for almost half of the total and Europe held back by fuel-hedging positions that will delay gains, according to the trade group. All regions apart from Africa should show positive figures.
The upbeat outlook assumes an average oil price of $65 a barrel, versus $73 this year, as well as global economic growth of 3.1 percent. That should produce an average net profit for airlines of $7.75 per departing passenger, up 30 cents, though IATA cautioned that trade wars and Brexit could curb gains.
“We had expected that rising costs would weaken profitability in 2019, but the sharp fall in oil prices and solid GDP growth projections have provided a buffer,” Alexandre de Juniac, the organization’s chief executive officer, said at a briefing Wednesday. “So we are cautiously optimistic that the run of solid value creation for investors will continue.”
The full benefit of the slide in jet-fuel prices won’t be felt immediately in some regions because of “heavy levels of hedging,” according to De Juniac, who was previously CEO of Air France-KLM Group.
IATA revised its profit estimate for 2018 to $32.3 billion, $1.5 billion lower than a forecast in June and more than $6 billion below the initial outlook a year ago. The new figure would represent a 14 percent decline compared with 2017’s all-time high of $37.7 billion.
IATA also said:
- Industry revenues should jump 8 percent to $885 billion in 2019 as passenger numbers increase by about 250 million to 4.59 billion.
- Cargo volumes will advance 3.5 percent to 65.9 million metric tons.
- North American carriers will post a net profit of $16.6 billion or $16.77 per passenger, more than twice the global average, IATA says, aided by consolidation that’s removed excess capacity and boosted fares. Low levels of fuel hedging will also mean a quick impact from the oil price.
- Europe’s net earnings will fall slightly to $7.4 billion as “intense competition” weighs on yields and air traffic control delays require carriers to provide refunds that totaled $2 billion in 2018. Higher levels of hedging will delay gains from falling fuel prices.
- Asia-Pacific carriers should see profit increase to $10.4 billion, aided by strong regional economic growth and limited fuel hedging.
- The Mideast will see earnings increase by one-third, but only to $800 million, IATA predicts, as the oil price hurts local travel demand, Persian Gulf hubs face increased competition and carriers such as Etihad Airways struggle with their business models.
- Latin America will produce the biggest percentage gain for a profit of $700 million, but continues to struggle with the aftermath of the Brazilian recession, difficulties in Argentina and the impact of currency changes on dollar-denominated purchases such as fuel and planes.
- African carriers may cut their collective losses by a quarter to $300 million, but occupancy levels mostly remain too low to generate a profit.
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Photo credit: An aircraft refueling. The International Air Transport Association expects industry-wide profits to rise in 2019. Bloomberg