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What’s the relationship between the number of tourists who visit a country and its visa policy? Some excellent data on this question will soon become available from India, which last week rolled out a new visa-on-arrival policy for citizens of 43 countries, including the U.S.
The new ruling is a long-awaited and much-needed one. India currently accounts for a measly 0.8 percent of foreign tourist arrivals in the world, or just under 7 million people in 2013. That suggests that the kind of foreign direct investment it really needs is more from individual tourists than from big multinationals such as Wal-Mart.
Notwithstanding the well-known challenges of an Indian vacation, it has long been suspected by Indians that what has really deterred tourists from an encounter with the world’s greatest, most hospitable, most spiritually advanced civilization is not the extreme heat (or cold, depending on where you go), or the poverty, frenzy, dust, traffic and pollution. Neither is it the bad roads, slow trains, perplexing hotels, babel of languages or ever-present specter of Delhi belly, nor the crowds of people wanting to take your picture, or have their picture taken with you, or your address for their own visa applications to the West. Nor is it the hordes of touts all wanting your custom, or the urchins your change, just because you are white or wore shorts despite being able to afford long pants and so must therefore be rich.
No, the hardest thing about visiting India was probably just getting past the red tape of bureaucracy into the damn country. Generations of determined tourists have lamented the long lines at foreign missions with (as with India itself) no apparent rules or signs, the complicated forms and the absurdly long processing times, the grim clerks using only two fingers to type but able to conduct extremely detailed, if pointless, cross-examinations (“Madam, you were married? Then divorced?”). And at every step of the process, the uneasy sense that something could go terribly, terribly wrong, and while it wouldn’t be your fault, it wouldn’t be anybody else’s fault, either.
The new policy, while not perfect or unambiguous — what, exactly, is a “casual business visit” and what might one do on such a trip that would break the compact of casualness? — promises to bring an end to most of those hassles. But at least the application process is all online, and it involves none of the visits to Indian missions abroad and the long processing times that so frustrated foreign travelers in the past.
Prospective travelers can now apply for a visa up to four days before they arrive and be able to stay as long as a month: long enough for large infusions of kebabs and culture in New Delhi, a spa retreat in Kerala, a visit to a tiger reserve in Madhya Pradesh, a day trip to the Taj Mahal in Agra, a week on the beaches of Goa or Odisha, expeditions to the cave art of Ajanta and Ellora, walks along the famous waterfront of Varanasi and on Colaba Causeway in Mumbai, ascents into hill stations in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, descents into the stepwells of Gujarat and Rajasthan. And we’ve barely scratched the surface.
This liberalization of India’s visa regime should in a few years supply enough data to make for a fascinating case study in how visa policy stimulates or suppresses the growth of a country’s travel industry. Here’s why.
Over the last decade (during which visa policies have been relatively constant), the number of tourists visiting India has grown at a steady clip, adding 200,000 to 500,000 visitors each year, leaving out the post-recession years of 2008 and 2009. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 5 percent, on par with the world average.
But shouldn’t a vast country with such a grand past and such a remarkable diversity of landscapes, religions and cultures be seeking to make more of its unique appeal? Could these figures have been much higher if it was easier to get a tourist visa to India? And could the new policy be a catalyst for a higher growth rate?
We may soon be able to find out. After all, 1 in every 7 foreign visitors to India today is American, which means that the new ease of access for U.S. travelers could have a considerable effect on tourism. The new policy also applies to citizens of Germany and Japan, meaning that India has just become much more accessible to people from three of the world’s four largest economies (for many good reasons, the policy could not be extended to China). That’s just the sort of boost from the government that the Indian travel industry needs.
This winter, drop all your reservations about India — make some reservations instead. We want you like never before.
To contact the author on this story: Chandrahas Choudhury at firstname.lastname@example.org. To contact the editor on this story: Brooke Sample at email@example.com.